Dustin Gouker draws structural parallels between the rise of prediction markets today and the daily fantasy sports boom of 2013-2015. He maps four similarities: duopoly dynamics, state regulatory pushback, industry self-regulation attempts, and casino industry opposition. Written by someone who covered both industries, it provides a grounded perspective on where the prediction market story arc might lead.

DWF Ventures argues prediction markets are evolving into a financial derivatives asset class. The piece analyzes structural barriers to leverage and collateral lending: jump risk, binary valuation and regulatory uncertainty. It surveys emerging solutions including epoch-based fee models, perpetual futures on outcomes and tokenised positions on Solana.

A formal comment to the CFTC's proposed rulemaking on prediction markets, submitted by an HKS researcher. Proposes a four-dimensional framework for classifying event contracts (information structure, manipulation economics, social utility, repugnance), reframes insider trading into three distinct patterns (outcome influence, duty breach, information advantage), and analyzes resolution integrity through three documented Polymarket/Kalshi case studies.

Robin Hanson responds to a CFTC call for comments by arguing prediction markets deserve the same regulatory treatment as other information institutions like journalism and academia. Drawing parallels between six common harms shared across all information systems, from insider trading to manipulation, he contends markets should be approved by default and restricted only on clear evidence of specific harm. The piece makes the economist's case that the information value of prediction markets justifies a lighter regulatory touch than traditional gambling law.

Defense of prediction markets that reframes the moral critique as a critique of capitalism itself. Litvin walks through the standard objections (gambling, insider trading, manipulation, slot-machine durations) and pairs each with a larger-scale analog in traditional finance: the $950M oil ceasefire trades on CME, LIBOR, accredited investor rules, dollar debasement. Argues that the legal line between gambling and investing collapses under scrutiny and that prediction markets are simply a more legible version of dynamics already accepted everywhere else.

Teaser thread for a 50+ page Q1 2026 prediction markets report. Claims the space did more volume in one quarter than all of 2025 combined, and distills 11 insights on scale, concentration, monetization, and the attention the category is drawing from institutions and regulators.

a16z's overview of institutional adoption of prediction markets, centered on Kalshi. Outlines a three-stage framework: using markets as data sources, integrating them into compliance workflows, and finally actively hedging risk. Sports hit $3B weekly volume but reached an all-time low as a share of total volume, while entertainment, crypto, and culture categories show stronger retention. The main bottleneck for institutional participation is full notional collateral requirements, which Kalshi is addressing through margin trading licenses.

On-chain analysis of Polymarket's fast crypto markets from September 2025 through March 2026. Five-minute contracts overtook 15-minute in weeks ($2.3B vs $795M in notional volume), bots control 55-62% of volume across fast markets, and Bitcoin drives 77% of turnover. The piece argues that with $23.7M in taker fees collected in 83 days through a maker-rebate fee model, Polymarket has structurally converged with a derivatives exchange.

Builder's bullish case for a prediction market supercycle, written from the perspective of the founder behind Kreo (a Polymarket automation product). Argues the space is still early based on the absence of cult-like community formation compared to NFTs or meme-coins, nascent builders programs, and upcoming permissionless markets. Covers the gambling-vs-trading distinction, insider trading as both a problem and a signal source, and Polymarket's pricing edge over traditional sportsbooks on most events.

Maps the prediction market landscape as a stack war between crypto rails (Polymarket), regulated rails (Kalshi), and execution wrappers (Coinbase, Robinhood). Argues the sector is stratifying into product archetypes rather than converging on a winner-takes-all outcome, with TradFi incumbents pushing standardized binaries that fit existing market structure.

European regulators face a classification problem: prediction market contracts could be gambling, MiFID II derivatives, or something else entirely, and different Member States treat them differently. Proposes a structured 'Prediction Test' modeled on Malta's Financial Instrument Test for crypto-assets, which would systematically categorize contracts through exclusion to determine which regulatory regime applies.

History of U.S. prediction market regulation culminating in the February 2026 jurisdictional standoff between CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and Utah Governor Cox. Park traces the arc from the Iowa Electronic Markets' 1988 no-action letter, through Intrade's 2012 collapse and the binary options fraud era, to Kalshi's court win establishing that 'gaming' does not cover financial contracts on uncertain outcomes. Argues federal preemption under the Commodity Exchange Act will hold against state attorneys general, and that Bitwise's PredictionShares ETF launch marks the point where political event contracts become a mainstream financial product.