Uses the case of a trader sniping Polymarket's geopolitical strike markets at 10 cents to argue that continuous order books are structurally broken for binary assets. In traditional markets, sniping costs basis points; in prediction markets, it costs 80 cents on the dollar because prices jump from 0.10 to 0.99 on a single tweet. Proposes frequent batch auctions (citing Budish, Cramton, and Shim) to shift competition from speed to price accuracy, and introduces the concept of a 'liquidity mirage' where the highest social-value markets are precisely those where passive liquidity is unsustainable.

Applies adverse selection concepts specifically to prediction markets. Compares market making difficulty across Indian options (easy), crypto (medium), and prediction markets (legendary). Argues gap risk is effectively worse than any other asset class because informed counterparties can have near-perfect information and take out entire order books.

Educational deep-dive on adverse selection and market making fundamentals. Uses the classic Jane Street coffee interview question to illustrate why conditional on someone trading with you, you should be less confident your trade was good. Explains how market makers profit from retail flow while avoiding toxic informed counterparties.