Collecting orders over a time window and clearing them simultaneously at a single price to reduce manipulation.
Cluster: Liquidity & Trading
Collecting orders over a time window and clearing them simultaneously at a single price to reduce manipulation.
Referenced in 3 articles
Uses the case of a trader sniping Polymarket's geopolitical strike markets at 10 cents to argue that continuous order books are structurally broken for binary assets. In traditional markets, sniping costs basis points; in prediction markets, it costs 80 cents on the dollar because prices jump from 0.10 to 0.99 on a single tweet. Proposes frequent batch auctions (citing Budish, Cramton, and Shim) to shift competition from speed to price accuracy, and introduces the concept of a 'liquidity mirage' where the highest social-value markets are precisely those where passive liquidity is unsustainable.
Argues that First-Come-First-Served order matching in prediction markets creates perverse incentives: latency wars between traders and defensive spread widening by market makers. Proposes priority batch auctions that process cancellations before maker orders before taker orders, allowing market makers to quote tighter spreads and improving price quality for all participants.
Argues prediction markets should adopt batched auction mechanisms instead of continuous limit order books. Claims no practical social benefit exists from sub-second reaction times, and batching would redirect trader effort toward meaningful questions while reducing zero-sum speed competition.