Industry analysis mapping $63.5 billion in 2025 prediction market volume and a $200 billion+ 2026 run rate. Identifies a structural tension: sports drive current revenue (83% of Kalshi volume), but valuations price in an information infrastructure future that hasn't arrived yet. Argues distribution platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase will capture most value as they vertically integrate into exchange infrastructure.

Argues that prediction markets are a proof of concept for a broader shift: probability as infrastructure. Proposes three 'probability layers' beyond trading: attention markets that price content virality forward, credibility markets that turn trust into a continuously updated score, and demand markets that capture consumer intent before production. Frames the endgame as probability signals embedded invisibly into every decision surface on the internet.

Traces the history of prediction markets from 1419 Vatican papal elections through the Iowa Electronic Markets to the Polymarket era, arguing the sector is at an inflection point. Surveys the insider trading scandals (Musk tweets, French elections), moral hazard concerns (assassination markets), and the wave of new entrants (Robinhood, DraftKings, Crypto.com, FanDuel) that signal mainstream adoption. Concludes that prediction markets are evolving, not decaying, but need regulatory clarity and structural reform to mature.

Argues prediction markets are the natural marketplace for sovereign AI agents to trade their core commodity: information. Frames decentralized PMs as the 'bazaar' where agents monetize alpha through positions, market creators earn fees from surfacing unanswered questions, and reproducible computation enables incorruptible AI judges for dispute resolution. Positions this as an alternative to centralized AI lab alignment—market incentives align agents through financial participation rather than top-down instruction.

Annual letter arguing that retail financial speculation has permanently shifted from investment to entertainment, driven by smartphone access and zero-commission trading. Documents the collapse of holding periods, zero-day options comprising 59% of options volume in 2025, and the proliferation of insider trading cases across sports and corporate prediction markets as event markets expand to cover everything. Frames this as a structural shift rather than a cyclical bubble.

Examines Trendle, a perpetual attention market that treats social engagement as a tradable index. Covers the two-layer architecture (attention index + market layer), anti-gaming mechanisms (normalization, deseasonalization, quantile clipping), and funding rates that penalize crowded positions. Frames attention as 'the only scarce resource in the digital age.'

Argues prediction markets should shift from edge-seeking tools for professionals to identity-signaling social platforms. Proposes a TikTok-like feed where bets become public expressions of belief, removing the friction of intent and transforming markets from information tools into social spaces.

Argues that prediction markets represent one application within a broader 'info finance' ecosystem. Proposes these mechanisms can improve governance, scientific research, journalism, and social media through information-pricing mechanisms that go beyond simple betting.

Frames prediction markets as predecessors to financialized social networks. Uses Polymarket (which briefly hit #1 in app stores) as evidence that linking user views to financial stakes creates engagement through capital formation rather than pure attention capture. Argues these platforms are stress-testing primitives for Web3 social infrastructure.