market structure

The organization and stratification of prediction market platforms into distinct layers — rails (settlement/execution), wrappers (distribution/user access), and product archetypes — and the competitive dynamics between them.

Cluster: Business & Platforms

Related Concepts

• platform competition — How prediction market platforms differentiate, compete for users, and defend market share.
• event contracts — Standardized binary contracts on specific real-world events, the core trading unit of prediction markets.
• distribution moat — The competitive advantage a multi-asset platform (like Robinhood) holds over specialized prediction market platforms (like Kalshi, Polymarket) by offering event contracts alongside stocks, options, crypto, and futures—allowing it to cross-sell PMs to an existing large user base and undercut standalone platforms on fees.
• regulatory classification — The legal categorization of prediction market contracts as gambling, financial derivatives, or a distinct product class, which determines which regulatory regime applies and what compliance obligations operators face.

Articles about market structure

• The State of Prediction Markets by blocmates