continuous prediction markets

Prediction markets with continuous payout curves that resolve along a spectrum instead of a binary yes/no, allowing traders to express shaped beliefs about where an outcome will land.

Cluster: Mechanism Design

Related Concepts

• binary contracts — Prediction market contracts that resolve to exactly one of two values, typically $1 (yes) or $0 (no), based on whether a specified event occurs. The binary structure eliminates ambiguity at resolution and enables direct probabilistic interpretation of prices.
• market structure — The organization and stratification of prediction market platforms into distinct layers — rails (settlement/execution), wrappers (distribution/user access), and product archetypes — and the competitive dynamics between them.
• price discovery — The process through which trading activity reveals the fair value or true probability of an event.

Articles about continuous prediction markets

• Option Markets vs Binary Markets vs Continuous Markets by MO