Kalshi hires a former FBI agent to lead its first anti-money laundering team — Sean Fern, a former FBI agent and federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, joins Kalshi to build defenses against money laundering, sanctions evasion, and fraud on the platform. He will work with law enforcement, regulators, and senior staff on customer identity checks, source-of-funds reviews, and referrals of suspicious activity. The hire comes as Kalshi crosses $260 billion in bets this year, triple all of 2025, and faces mounting scrutiny over market manipulation and insider trading.
The NBA seeks prediction market data access before the season tips off — Commissioner Adam Silver told CNBC on October 9, 2026 that the league wants access to prediction market data to monitor for manipulation and police insider trading on contracts tied to its games and business, and wants more control over which markets platforms may list. The push comes before the NBA season starts October 20, 2026, leaving little runway before a new wave of game-night contracts trades. Silver has backed consistent federal oversight, noted the NBA answers to roughly 40 jurisdictions, and endorsed a minimum trading age of 21, after the NFL's Supreme Court brief arguing sports contracts are gambling and an Illinois ruling halting enforcement of state gambling law against Kalshi and Coinbase event contracts.
Kalshi investigates suspicious bets on the new White House press secretary — Kalshi is investigating at least three small, precisely timed wagers on Katie Zacharia replacing Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary, placed shortly before news outlets reported the pick despite the market pricing just a 1% chance. A $19 bet at 10:43 p.m. Thursday stood to net $1,896, and two bets of $74 and $80 on Friday were poised to pay out $7,712 combined. A Kalshi spokeswoman confirmed the investigation to media, and the episode follows a CFTC probe into unusual trading activity on the platform and a soldier charged with using classified information to win over $400,000 on Polymarket.
Blockchain.com applies to the CFTC for licenses to run its own prediction market and derivatives exchange — Blockchain.com has applied to the CFTC for a designated contract market license and futures commission merchant registration, which would let it run its own event-contract exchange and handle customer accounts, orders and collateral rather than only distributing partner products. CEO Peter Smith said the applications aim to let users manage digital assets, trade derivatives and take positions on real-world events on one regulated U.S. platform, with the proposed products serving both retail and institutional customers. Eleven other companies have filed for DCM licenses this year and the CFTC has approved six new exchanges in 2026, while Blockchain.com currently offers Polymarket event contracts and Hyperliquid-powered perpetual futures outside the U.S. and is reportedly weighing an IPO at a valuation of up to $6 billion to raise $500 million.
The Oklahoma Indian Gaming Association says prediction markets undermine tribal gaming compacts — Association chair Matthew Morgan says platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are enabling illegal Class III gaming that infringes on tribal sovereignty and cuts into revenue from compacts, which generated over $221 million in fees in the 2025 budget year. None of the association's 25 member tribes have signed deals to offer Kalshi-backed sports prediction markets, though some of the 575 federally recognized tribes nationally have. State Sen. Bill Coleman says he has talked with Kalshi about revenue-sharing models but expects Oklahoma to wait for the courts to resolve the regulatory question before acting.
Coinbase appeals Connecticut sports event contract ruling to Second Circuit — Coinbase Financial Markets filed its opening brief on Oct. 7 asking the Second Circuit to classify its sports event contracts as swaps governed exclusively by the Commodity Exchange Act, while Connecticut argues they are sports wagers under state gambling law. The appeal follows Judge Vernon D. Oliver's Aug. 10 denial of Coinbase's preliminary injunction request, in which he found the company had not shown a likelihood of success on its swap or preemption arguments. The contracts are listed on KalshiEX, a CFTC-registered exchange, with Coinbase acting as intermediary in Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. v. Tong, No. 26-2297.
Seminole Tribe Sues DraftKings in Florida Prediction Market Spat — The Seminole Tribe of Florida sues DraftKings in a dispute over prediction market offerings in the state, where the tribe holds exclusive rights to sports betting under its compact. The suit argues DraftKings' event contracts encroach on that exclusivity. It adds to the growing set of state-level challenges testing whether prediction markets can operate where tribal gaming compacts grant exclusivity.
Kalshi pays former senator Blanche Lincoln $480,000 to lobby for sports event contracts — Blanche Lincoln, who as Senate Agriculture Committee chair helped write Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010, warned on the Senate floor that event contracts could be used to evade gambling laws by letting people wager on the Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby, and Masters. Her firm has now received $480,000 from Kalshi since 2024 to lobby Congress and the CFTC for looser regulation of event contracts, the same contracts she once argued served no commercial purpose. The CFTC's authority to ban sports bets structured as event contracts traces directly to the law Lincoln co-authored.
The NFL urges the Supreme Court to rule on prediction market regulation after $1.8 billion in first Sunday trading volume — The NFL filed a brief Thursday supporting New Jersey's request for Supreme Court review in Flaherty v. KalshiEx, arguing states are better positioned to oversee sports-related contracts and that delay will increase consumer harm and risk to game integrity. The league says more than half the trading volume on prediction markets on the first Sunday of this season, $1.8 billion out of $3.3 billion, was connected to the NFL. Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana responds that the CFTC is actively policing sports-related markets and that its ongoing rulemaking addresses the NFL's concerns, pointing to partnerships with the NHL and MLB. The American Gaming Association and 145 tribal groups also filed briefs supporting New Jersey's challenge to CFTC exclusive jurisdiction, Kalshi's response is due Nov. 9, and the Court has not agreed to hear the case.
Kalshi donation forces National Council on Problem Gambling chief to resign — National Council on Problem Gambling executive director Heather Maurer resigns after accepting a $2 million donation from Kalshi without prior board approval and requiring directors to sign nondisclosure agreements before revealing it. NCPG programs director Jaime Costello also resigns days earlier, as Kalshi and Polymarket face growing state and tribal scrutiny over prediction market betting.
ProphetX, Gemini and Webull exit Connecticut as PrizePicks suspends event contracts in Missouri — Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection says ProphetX, Gemini and Webull withdrew after cease-and-desist orders went to nine prediction market operators last month, while the agency stays in talks with Polymarket, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, Novig and Underdog. Robinhood has asked to intervene in the CFTC's lawsuit against the state. In Missouri, PrizePicks suspended new Team Picks event contracts citing updated legal requirements, though existing entries stay active and its fantasy product is untouched. The Cabazon Band of Cahuilla Indians also filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey's Supreme Court petition to review the Third Circuit ruling for Kalshi.
Polymarket explores an onchain asset with programmable utility but no token yet — CEO Shayne Coplan said at TOKEN2049 Singapore on October 7, 2026 that Polymarket is exploring an onchain asset with what he called real programmable utility tied to the platform's economy, comparing the concept to an ideal design of stocks. He gave no name, timeline, or structure, and the platform has no native token as of that date despite prior trademark filings for POLY and $POLY. The remarks followed Polymarket's Protocol V2 technical work and came as revenue comparisons circulated putting Polymarket at roughly $9.9 million versus Hyperliquid's $2.64 million.
Coinbase agrees to halt Michigan sports event contracts by October 10 deadline under MGCB deal — Coinbase Financial Markets agrees with the Michigan Gaming Control Board to stop offering new sports-related event contracts in Michigan and wind down all remaining open customer positions by the October 10 deadline, the regulator announced. The stipulation covers contracts traded on KalshiEX and other designated contract markets, and Michigan will pause enforcement while Coinbase complies and related appeals proceed. MGCB executive director Henry Williams says Coinbase joining Robinhood and Kalshi in stepping back from unlicensed sports contracts underscores the state's commitment to enforcing its gaming laws, while Coinbase's appeal of its August injunction denial remains stayed pending Sixth Circuit appeals involving Robinhood, Polymarket and Kalshi.
Kalshi files 100-barrel WTI futures contract with CFTC — Kalshi filed a 100-barrel WTI futures contract with the CFTC on Wednesday, moving into mainstream oil derivatives with a product that would carry a 10-year term. The filing follows the CFTC's June request for public feedback on round-the-clock futures trading and energy-linked perpetual contracts, and comes after CME withdrew plans for a continuously traded 10-barrel WTI futures contract in October following regulator and energy firm concerns. Kalshi's commodities market trading volume stood at roughly $400 million as of early September, and the CFTC must decide on the proposal within 45 days.
39 states and Washington DC urge Supreme Court to take up Kalshi sports contracts case — Attorneys general from 39 states and Washington, D.C. filed an amicus brief backing New Jersey's petition in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC, docket No. 26-299, arguing sports-related prediction contracts are not swaps shielded from state oversight under the Commodity Exchange Act. The petition cites conflicting circuit rulings, with the Ninth Circuit siding with Nevada in August and the Sixth Circuit holding in September that Tennessee and Ohio can apply gambling laws to Kalshi, while the Third Circuit backed Kalshi in April. California's Cabazon Band of Cahuilla Indians filed a separate brief warning the Third Circuit's reasoning threatens tribal gaming under IGRA, and the IAGR and NAGRA also backed intervention; a ruling is unlikely before early 2027.
Kalshi partners with Ronald Acuña Jr. as the first MLB star to promote a prediction market — Kalshi signs Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. as a promotional partner, making him the first active Major League Baseball star to publicly back a prediction market. The deal puts a mainstream sports figure behind Kalshi's event contracts at a moment when the company is fighting state regulators over whether its sports markets count as gambling. It also signals that prediction platforms are willing to spend on celebrity marketing the way sportsbooks do.
A Ninth Circuit ruling backs two California tribes in their Kalshi sports betting dispute — The Ninth Circuit finds that Kalshi's event contracts likely function as sports bets, siding with Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, which accuse Kalshi of violating the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act by offering sports event contracts on tribal lands. The decision in Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi follows Kalshi v. Assad, where the same court held that sports event contracts likely constitute bets and that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Nevada's regulation of sports prediction markets. The ruling could give the Supreme Court an additional vehicle to decide whether event contracts deserve different legal treatment than sports bets.
Kalshi offers to cap its affiliate trading desk at 5% of quarterly volume — Kalshi told the CFTC in a public comment letter that it will voluntarily limit its subsidiary trading desk to 5% of betting volume each quarter, covering both single-event bets and parlays executed through an RFQ system outside the central order book. The offer is an alternative to the CFTC's conflict-of-interest proposal, which would force affiliated trading arms to receive last priority at every price in the order book. Kalshi also recommends the CFTC define affiliate relationships by voting interest and ownership percentage and require independent financial surveillance and separate physical offices for affiliated desks. At September volumes, 5% of maker volume would have been roughly $2.3 billion.
Three prediction market companies stop operating in Connecticut after state crackdown — Three prediction market operators have halted business in Connecticut following enforcement action by state authorities, extending the patchwork of state-level restrictions on event contracts. The exits come as courts split on whether platforms like Kalshi are running illegal gambling or lawful federally regulated exchanges.
The FCA engages with prediction markets as Polymarket and Kalshi weigh UK entry — The UK's Financial Conduct Authority is in discussions with prediction-market operators as Polymarket and Kalshi consider launching in the British market. The talks signal that the UK regulator may take a different approach to event contracts than the CFTC's US framework, potentially opening a major new jurisdiction for the platforms.
Kalshi adds Brier scores and real-time trade feeds ahead of first major midterm cycle — Kalshi rolls out three transparency measures for its election markets: a Brier score tracking forecast accuracy against historical outcomes, a low-volume flag warning users when a market is thin enough to be moved by a few traders, and a real-time feed of individual trades showing how probabilities form. The changes land as election markets see surging activity into the midterms, the first major cycle with prediction markets broadly available to the public since the 2024 court decision opened the door. Regulators and state election officials have raised concerns about insider trading, disinformation and the industry's effect on campaigns, and Kalshi is positioning the new tools as a preemptive answer.
Polymarket rolls out Protocol V2 with pUSD collateral and targets November 2 switch for new markets — Polymarket began rolling out Protocol V2 on Monday, a smart contract overhaul that replaces 2019-era infrastructure with a single exchange supporting multiple market types, Polymarket USD (pUSD) as the sole collateral token, and one contract for position tokens. Protocol lead Rajath Alex said the system is being tested on a limited set of live canary markets through October 30, with a tentative November 2 target for switching new markets to V2. The upgrade adds upgradeable contracts governed through a secure process and an OracleAggregator connecting to oracles including UMA and Chainlink, and is designed for eventual cross-chain transfers of positions, collateral and outcome data, though Polymarket has not said when that launches or which networks it will support. Polymarket said the system was audited by Cantina, Quantstamp and Zellic with formal verification by Certora, and is offering bug bounties of up to $5 million for critical issues.
Kalshi argues a user's express consent bars a data privacy suit — Kalshi is defending a data privacy suit by arguing that the user gave express consent, which it says bars the claims. The dispute turns on the consent terms a trader accepted when signing up and trading on the platform. The outcome could shape how prediction markets handle user data and what disclosures they must make to retail customers.
Manhattan judge weighs dismissal in Polymarket Maduro bet case — U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett heard arguments on Wednesday on whether to dismiss wire fraud and insider trading charges against Gannon Van Dyke, a former Army master sergeant accused of using classified information about the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket. Defense lawyer Daniela Manzi argued the $34,000 contract was gambling rather than a regulated commodities trade, while the CFTC has filed parallel civil insider trading charges. Garnett took the motions under advisement without ruling, leaving unresolved whether insider trading law reaches prediction market contracts.
Ohio orders 10 prediction market operators to halt sports contracts — The Ohio Casino Control Commission sent cease-and-desist notices to 10 prediction market operators and brokers, including Underdog, Gemini Titan, Coinbase, ProphetX, Novig, Robinhood Derivatives, Polymarket's U.S. entity, Plus500US Financial Services, Moomoo Financial and Webull Financial, ordering them to stop offering sports event contracts in the state and confirm compliance by October 16. The OCCC said the contracts constitute sports gaming requiring an Ohio license that none of the recipients holds, and Interim Executive Director Andromeda Morrison said the wagers lack protections Ohio law requires, particularly for young and vulnerable people. The action follows the September 25 Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling in KalshiEx LLC v. Schuler, which found the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Ohio's gambling laws.
DraftKings pivots into prediction markets in a move analysts value at $800 million — DraftKings is repositioning its business around prediction market products, a pivot that analysts estimate could unlock roughly $800 million in value for the sportsbook operator. The move puts DraftKings directly into competition with established prediction market venues like Kalshi and Polymarket, leveraging its existing sports betting customer base and regulatory footprint. For the incumbents, a major sportsbook entering the space signals that prediction markets are becoming a core product category rather than a niche alternative.
Rep. Don Davis introduces a bill to ban federal candidates from trading on their own races — The No Betting on Your Own Race Act, introduced during a pro forma House session, would fine candidates $10,000 or three times their net trading gain, whichever is larger, for trading event contracts tied to their own candidacy. It follows Kalshi's August settlement with Laurie Buckhout, Davis's Republican opponent in North Carolina's 1st District, who paid a penalty of just under $2,600 and received a three-year suspension for trading on her own race. With neither chamber set to meet again before the midterms, the bill has little chance of taking effect this cycle, though the Senate passed a resolution in April banning senators and their staff from prediction-market trading.
Bank of America upgrades DraftKings to buy on prediction market opportunity — Bank of America analyst Julie Hoover raises DraftKings from Neutral to Buy while keeping a US$27 price target, sending the stock up about 5% after a 47% decline over the past year. Hoover estimates the prediction market business could generate roughly US$400 million in fees in 2027, with another US$200 million to US$400 million potentially from market-making. DraftKings reported that over 600,000 customers had used its DraftKings Predictions platform by August this year.
Kalshi launches US 500 perpetual future for Prime clients — Kalshi launched the first US equity perpetual future, giving Kalshi Prime clients access on 7 October 2026 to the US 500 perpetual future, which tracks the total return of a Kalshi index of the largest US companies weighted by market cap. CEO Jeff Bandman pitched it as no expiry, no Greeks, and simplified long and short exposure, with stop-loss and take-profit orders, liquidation warnings, and around-the-clock surveillance through the same FCM relationship clients already use for crypto and commodity perps. The launch extends Kalshi's perps lineup beyond crypto and commodities and sits alongside its event contracts under one clearing and risk stack.
Kalshi and Housing Works announce $3 million partnership for New York healthcare — Kalshi is partnering with Housing Works on a multi-year, $3 million gift, the largest single-donor contribution in the nonprofit's 36-year history, centered on expanding the 125th Street Health Center in East Harlem. The partnership also expands Housing Works' Ready for Work vocational and job training program and uses its neighborhood retail locations as community touchpoints, as more than 500,000 New York City residents lack health insurance. The announcement comes as Governor Kathy Hochul and the state attorney general sue Kalshi and an appeals court recently found the company subject to state gambling laws.
A Michigan tribe joins the fight against prediction market operators amid nearly 200 lawsuits — A Michigan tribe has joined the legal fight against prediction market operators, adding to a docket of nearly 200 lawsuits. The dispute centers on whether event contracts offered by prediction platforms count as regulated sports betting under tribal and state gaming compacts. The growing case count signals that tribal gaming interests are aligning with state regulators against prediction market venues.
Nevada: Attorney opposes Kalshi’s bid to delay rehearing due to CFTC rulemaking — Kalshi asked the Ninth Circuit to grant rehearing en banc or hold its petition until the CFTC publishes revised Rule 40.11, which the agency says will come within two months. Nevada's attorney Nicole Saharsky of Mayer Brown countered that the CFTC's planned revision is nothing new and would not change the court's holding that sports event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC has separately sent two proposed rules to the White House, one defining swaps to include event contracts and one excluding casino-style gambling products.
Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul takes on Kalshi | Legally Speaking with Hildebrand Law Firm — Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul is mounting a legal challenge against Kalshi, raising the core question of whether its event contracts are sports betting in disguise or federally regulated futures. Attorneys Kirsten Hildebrand and Mark Kaplan frame the fight as a state-versus-federal authority clash, with Native American gaming interests weighing in and users potentially routing around geographic restrictions via VPNs. The discussion also flags insider trading and corruption risks alongside the upside of broader engagement with sports and politics.
Kalshi and Coinbase win partial Illinois injunction as judge blocks gambling rules and 1.75% wager tax — US District Judge Martha M. Pacold granted a preliminary injunction in Illinois on October 2, 2026, siding with KalshiEX, Coinbase and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission against state officials. The order stops Illinois from enforcing gambling-style rules on sports event contracts, including age limits, geographic restrictions and a 1.75% per-wager tax, after Pacold found the contracts likely qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and are preempted by federal law. Illinois sent a cease-and-desist letter to Kalshi in April 2025 after the CFTC-registered exchange began listing sports contracts that January, and Pacold found the state's licensing rules likely conflict with the federal framework because compliance would force Kalshi to build a market solely for Illinoisans.
Edge Markets deploys agentic AI on Edge Pro to automate margin calls for institutional prediction market traders — Edge Markets, led by founder and CEO Seni Thomas, is adding agentic AI agents to its Edge Pro platform so market makers and institutional traders in 24/7 yes/no markets can pre-determine how much capital to deploy, by whom and for what purpose, including daily transaction limits. Through Edge Connect, clients can have additional margin pulled automatically for margin-intensive trades, a feature aimed at covering margin calls even when traditional banking is closed. The offering addresses the capital-access gap created by perpetual futures, which Kalshi first launched in May 2026 and which trade nonstop.
Fanatics plans to spend up to $1 billion on gambling ads in 2027 — Fanatics CEO Michael Rubin says the company will more than double its gambling advertising budget from $350 million this year to as much as $1 billion in 2027, aiming to close the gap on DraftKings and FanDuel and reach number one. Fanatics holds roughly 10% of the U.S. sports betting market, a distant third, and Rubin cites its private ownership as an edge that lets it fund the currently unprofitable gambling unit with profits from merchandise and trading cards. Total company revenue is projected at around $14 billion for the year, up 40% year over year, with the gambling unit accounting for roughly $2 billion.
LegitScript eyes prediction market compliance opportunity — Portland-based LegitScript, which provides compliance and risk monitoring for regulated industries, sees a business opening in the uncertainty surrounding prediction market regulation. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face shifting state and federal rules, demand grows for third-party verification and monitoring services.
Kalshi draws scrutiny as self-excluded bettor loses $25,000 trading bitcoin contracts — A Pennsylvania man who uses Thomas as his middle name self-excluded from DraftKings and FanDuel after going bankrupt in 2023 with roughly $75,000 in gambling debts, then found Kalshi through an Instagram ad offering a $20 bonus for a $10 deposit and lost more than $25,000 on the platform. He told NPR he traded up to 18 hours a day, mostly on bitcoin contracts that expired in as little as 15 minutes, and his state self-exclusion ban never carried over because Kalshi is not a licensed sportsbook. Kalshi says its prediction markets differ from sportsbooks, while critics warn short-term contracts can fuel repeated betting and add to wider concerns over the company's sports expansion and problem gambling safeguards.
CBS News faces ethics backlash over Kalshi midterm election data deal — CBS News partners with Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, to supply real-time event contract pricing for its 2026 midterm election coverage, with Director of Elections and Surveys Anthony Salvanto presenting Kalshi's market-implied odds alongside the network's own House and Senate polling. The deal, made under editor-in-chief Bari Weiss, draws sharp criticism from outlets like Futurism, which calls the embrace of prediction markets as journalism a moral disgrace and argues the platforms operate in a regulatory vacuum that enables insider trading and problem gambling. Critics also note Kalshi is the network's prediction market sponsor, raising questions about compromised coverage.
MGM and Caesars rule out prediction markets over license risks at G2E — MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle said at the Global Gaming Expo in Las Vegas that MGM considered entering prediction markets in early 2025, possibly through BetMGM, but abandoned the idea after Nevada regulators warned event contracts could jeopardize its gaming licenses, a concern sharpened by its operations outside the US. Caesars CEO Tom Reeg said Caesars will also stay out, citing ripple effects across the states where it runs casinos and sportsbooks, while both executives questioned the legal framework for sports-related contracts and the 18+ age limits, as the AGA and state regulators oppose sports contracts and Kalshi and Polymarket cite federal oversight.
Indian Gaming Association urges tribal unity against prediction market sports and casino contracts — Indian Gaming Association Chairman David Z. Bean and Executive Director Jason Giles met Arizona tribal leaders at the Global Gaming Expo to push back on prediction market platforms they say offer illegal online sports wagering and casino-style games while labeling them financial products. Giles framed the fight as a question of sovereign authority, arguing that sovereignty lies at the heart of pushing back these markets, and warned that efforts to recruit tribal nations into prediction market arrangements could split Indian Country. The IGA is coordinating with tribal governments, legal advocates and the American Gaming Association on litigation and congressional engagement.
Verdx seeks Canadian regulatory approval to become the country's first prediction market dealer — A team led by former Vanguard Investments Canada CEO Atul Tiwari filed this week for registration with the Canadian Securities Administrators as an investment dealer and for membership with the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization. The proposed platform, Verdx, would operate as an order-execution-only dealer focused exclusively on event contracts, unlike Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthsimple, which offer prediction markets as one product among many. Canadian regulators currently permit CIRO-approved dealers to list only contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets and climate trends, and have declined to oversee sports and entertainment bets.
Polymarket pushes into Europe with a major expansion bet — Polymarket is making a large play for European users, extending its reach beyond its offshore base into a market where regulators are still deciding how to treat event contracts. The move puts the platform in direct competition with Kalshi and other venues courting the same international traders.
Novig credits Sydney Sweeney campaign for growth surge — Novig says its "Just Sports" campaign starring Sydney Sweeney drove trading volume up nearly 94% and first-time depositors up more than 218% in the 20 days before and after the September 9 launch, co-founder Jacob Fortinsky told CNBC. Active users climbed 96% month over month and 260% year over year in September while app downloads jumped more than 187%, and Fortinsky said he did not expect the ad, along with the start of the NFL season, to draw this much volume. Sweeney approached Novig about taking an equity stake, motivated by the platform's avoidance of contracts on wars, deaths and politics, though the company did not disclose the size of her stake; the ad drew backlash from some female athletes, but Fortinsky said the company has "nothing to apologize for." The sports-only prediction market, which launched as a federally regulated platform on August 4, is valued at $2 billion after a new funding round, up from $500 million in February, and is live in 47 states with more than 250,000 traders and $6.5 billion in activity.
Kalshi leads prediction markets' $3 million lobbying push against state regulation — Kalshi, Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets spend at least $3 million on lobbying and campaign contributions in 2026, with Kalshi giving $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association in the first half of the year, plus $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association. Kalshi has at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states, nearly all hired since April, and spent $62,000 on California lobbying, according to OpenSecrets-reviewed IRS filings. The platforms argue their event contracts are federally regulated swaps rather than state gambling, and the jurisdiction dispute is moving toward the Supreme Court as the CFTC has sued nine states.
CFTC moves to codify prediction market authority in formal rulemaking — The CFTC is writing its existing claim over event contracts into formal rulemaking, locking in the framework for which prediction-market products can list on regulated venues and shifting its jurisdiction claim from enforcement posture to codified rule. The proposal follows a run of court fights and state-level challenges over sports and election contracts and would give platforms a clearer federal standard to cite when states try to shut them down. It builds on the commission's earlier issuance of one rule and proposal of another, as Chairman Mike Selig pushes to fold certain event contracts traded on platforms including Kalshi into the agency's swaps framework.
Robinhood to offer Cboe KPI event contracts as first retail broker with October launch eyed — Robinhood Markets will become the first retail broker to offer Cboe Global Markets event contracts tied to corporate earnings and other data points from 23 companies including Apple, Coinbase, SpaceX, Tesla and Robinhood itself, pending SEC approval for an October launch timed to third-quarter earnings season. Cboe sought approval in July for binary derivatives tied to 100 key performance indicators of 23 public companies, and the contracts could let clients trade discrete metrics such as Apple iPhone sales, SpaceX rocket launches or Tesla model deliveries rather than stock price moves. Cboe frames the SEC-regulated securities structure as distinct from similar event-based contracts on designated contract markets, citing transparency, oversight, investor protections and federal preemption of state securities registration requirements.
Polymarket adds deposit limits and lifetime self-exclusion as sports and parlays drive 98 percent of US volume — Polymarket rolls out US user safeguards that let traders set daily, weekly or monthly deposit caps across Apple Pay, bank transfers, cards and cryptocurrency, with reductions taking effect immediately and increases or removals subject to a cooling-off period, plus voluntary self-exclusion for 30 days, one year or life, alongside a Birches Health partnership offering virtual addiction treatment in all 50 states and a Trust & Safety Center covering trading rules, market integrity, community guidelines and content moderation. Sports and multi-leg parlays accounted for more than 98 percent of September trading volume on Polymarket's US site, according to data firm TickerTracker, explaining why the tools resemble safeguards state laws require of licensed sportsbooks even though prediction markets answer to the federal CFTC. The rollout, led by global head of trust and safety Malea Otranto, arrives as lawmakers in 44 states seek to change the federal financial-market exemption that shields prediction markets from state consumer protection laws, and after New York sued Polymarket over alleged circumvention of gambling regulations, prompting Polymarket to file its own federal suit arguing the CFTC has jurisdiction over its event contracts.
Kalshi files to end its volume incentive program on October 13 as CFTC examines disputed ether perpetual futures volume — KalshiEX filed with the CFTC on September 28 to terminate its Volume Incentive Program, launched in March 2023, which paid eligible traders a share of a fixed reward pool based on qualifying completed volume, with the earliest end date of October 13. The filing gives no reason, and the change comes as the CFTC examines disputed trading activity; Kalshi denies it is under investigation and says wash trading does not occur on its platform, attributing repeated prints to market makers and faster traders. CNBC analysis found that nearly half of the dollar volume in ether perpetual futures on September 20 came from trades of roughly $5,495 to $5,505, and that as of September 30 morning, bitcoin and ether perpetual futures volume exceeded open interest by about 42 and 66 times respectively; Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such said the company has no concerns about the ratio, citing lower leverage and US regulatory requirements, and said Kalshi tracked hundreds of users involved in the transactions and has mechanisms to monitor self-trading or collusion, suggesting the activity could reflect arbitrage between crypto prices on other exchanges and market-maker quotes on its platform. The termination lands in a record month, with September volume at $52.98 billion through September 29 against August's $38.67 billion, while Reuters reports Kalshi is discussing a $1 billion raise at roughly a $40 billion valuation.
Polymarket faces $10 million stolen-card fraud after loosening AML controls — Polymarket weakened anti-money-laundering safeguards before a February fraud attack in which criminals linked stolen debit cards to thousands of US accounts and attempted at least $10 million in wagers and withdrawals, with payment processor Checkout.com rejecting over 80% of deposits at the peak against an industry norm near 1%. CEO Shayne Coplan reportedly told staff to prioritize growth over compliance and said the company could deal with fines later, alarming some employees. Polymarket says fraud rates later returned to industry norms after stronger card controls, and it has since hired Warren Jenson as CFO while expanding compliance, investigations and risk management staffing; its US platform operates through QCX, a CFTC-designated contract market.
Robinhood expands AI trading tools for customers and adds new event contracts — Robinhood is widening its AI-driven trading features for retail users while rolling out additional event contracts on its platform. The move pushes the brokerage further into prediction-market style products alongside its existing equities, options, and crypto offerings. It signals that mainstream retail brokerages see event contracts as a way to keep users trading inside their own apps rather than on dedicated prediction venues.
Kalshi nears $40 billion round as Polymarket finalises $21 billion raise — Kalshi is closing a funding round at a valuation of about $40 billion, with Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management in talks to lead, in what is expected to be its last private raise before an IPO as early as 2027. The valuation is nearly four times the $11 billion set in December 2025 and almost double the $22 billion from March 2026, supported by roughly 90% gross margins and about $4 billion in annualised revenue as of August, when Dune Analytics data put trading volume above $40 billion, four times the level six months earlier, with sports driving most activity. Rival Polymarket is finalising its own round at a $21 billion valuation led by 1798 Capital, which would leave Kalshi valued at nearly twice its competitor, with both platforms regulated by the CFTC as US financial exchanges.
TMX Group is open to extending trading hours and adding prediction markets — The Canadian exchange operator says it would consider longer trading sessions and event-contract products as prediction markets spread beyond US venues. TMX runs the Toronto Stock Exchange and Montreal Exchange, giving it a regulated derivatives footprint that could host listed event contracts. Any move would put a major incumbent exchange group into a business currently dominated by Kalshi and Polymarket.
Raven closes a strategic round at a $90 million pre-money valuation led by Coinbase Ventures and CMCC Global — Coinbase Ventures and CMCC Global closed a strategic funding round with trading firm Raven at a $90 million pre-money valuation. CMCC co-founder Charlie Morris is joining the Raven board of directors, and Coinbase Ventures is the venture arm of Coinbase Global, which has an increasingly prominent footprint in prediction markets. Raven, founded in 2023, began as a crypto liquidity provider and expanded into prediction markets in the second quarter of 2025, quoting more than 3,000 contracts across sports, crypto, macroeconomics and entertainment.
CFTC weighs final rules as prediction market operators push back on proposal — Underdog, Novig and other prediction market operators are pushing back on a CFTC proposal covering affiliated entities and conflict-of-interest rules, arguing the agency misunderstands core parts of the Commodity Exchange Act. The comment period closed this week and the CFTC will spend two months deciding which feedback to fold into final rules. The agency has also told firms to stop mirroring sportsbook-style odds displays and sign-up promotions and to drop contracts it deems against the public interest, such as injury wagers.
Polymarket targets a November launch for its new Rust order book trading engine — Polymarket VP of engineering Josh Stevens says the end-to-end order book system ships by October, with market maker access and testing in November and two full migration rehearsals before the cutover. The new Rust central limit order book replaces what Stevens calls a hacked-together DeFi CLOB that caused repeated outages, including a nine-hour prediction trading API failure in early September and operational problems on the perpetuals side in August and September. An April V2 upgrade had already scaled executions from about 1,000 to over 10,000 orders per second and added the USDC-backed Polymarket USD stablecoin.
House Oversight Committee expands prediction market probe to Hyperliquid, Crypto.com and PredictIt with October 13 records deadline — Rep. James Comer, the Kentucky Republican who chairs the House Oversight Committee, sends formal information requests dated September 29 to Hyperliquid Labs, Crypto.com and Aristotle Exchange, which owns PredictIt, demanding records on customer verification procedures, geolocation and suspicious trading controls by October 13. The letters ask each company's chief executive how platforms verify customers, flag anomalous trading and report suspicious activity tied to Federal Reserve decisions, elections and geopolitical events, and whether internal restrictions stop employees with confidential information from trading related contracts. The expansion follows a May inquiry into Kalshi and Polymarket, with the committee citing an April 24 indictment alleging U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke used classified intelligence about Operation Absolute Resolve to place Polymarket wagers that generated more than $409,000; he has pleaded not guilty.
Polymarket taps Goldman veteran Lisa Mantil to court institutional money — Polymarket hires Lisa Mantil, a nearly three-decade Goldman Sachs veteran and former partner who led the bank's ETF accelerator, as head of institutional growth, with a formal announcement slated for Tuesday. The move follows the May launch of Polymarket's US-regulated exchange and the earlier appointment this month of Warren Jenson as CFO, as prediction markets seek to attract larger traders.
CFTC probes Kinzinger pardon trades on Kalshi and Polymarket as Supreme Court weighs market oversight — The CFTC is investigating former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Channahon, Illinois over pardon-related trades on Kalshi, with career enforcement officials also scrutinizing Biden pardon markets on Polymarket after press reports of potential insider activity, two sources told CNN. Kinzinger traded less than $1,000 across two pardon-related Kalshi markets in late 2024 and early 2025, acknowledged the trades and denied having insider information, noting he was a private citizen out of Congress at the time. The probe unfolds as the CFTC studies whether political prediction markets serve the public interest and the Supreme Court is asked to decide whether the CFTC or states should regulate them, with Public Citizen lobbyist Craig Holman telling Heartlander News that insider trading is the primary purpose of such markets.
Polymarket launches private company milestone contracts as equity-linked prediction markets draw regulatory scrutiny — Polymarket launched contracts tied to unicorn milestones in May 2026, covering roughly 1,600 private companies with a combined valuation above $5 trillion, with resolution data sourced exclusively from Nasdaq Private Market and trading limited to its offshore platform. The company's US operations run through QCX LLC, a CFTC-regulated subsidiary acquired in July 2025. Vanderbilt Law School associate dean Yesha Yadav calls the products a new frontier for market structure and urges watchdogs to be urgent and creative, while Polymarket says it monitors for misconduct and blocks US users from its international platform; the SEC declined to comment and the CFTC did not respond.