France blocks access to Polymarket — The French national gaming authority ANJ ordered internet service providers to block Polymarket's website, adding a technical blockade to a November 2024 ban on financial transactions to the site. The ANJ cited the site's continued availability as illegal advertising, with fines up to 100,000 euros ($114,000), after visits from French IP addresses rose to 578,751 last month despite the existing ban. The action follows a series of incidents linked to Polymarket, including a hack of a Meteo-France weather probe to fix bets and a US soldier charged with using classified information to bet on prediction markets.
Polymarket allows betting on wildfires as experts warn it could incentivize arson — Polymarket hosted markets on the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, allowing bets on acreage burned, locations reached, and containment dates. Climate scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau of Climate Central, whose grandfather lost his home in the Eaton fire, said the platform creates a financial incentive to start fires and distances people from the human toll. Polymarket defended the markets as a source of accurate information during disasters, arguing that removing them would not prevent tragedy.
DAZN and ADI Predictstreet partner to launch a global sports prediction market platform — DAZN, a global sports streaming platform reaching over 200 countries with more than 75 programming rights, and ADI Predictstreet, the World Cup's prediction market partner, are expanding their April 2026 partnership into a dedicated sports prediction market. The platform will target the U.S. market pending regulatory approval, combining ADI Predictstreet's regulated platform with DAZN's global reach and premium sports rights. DAZN Group CEO Shay Segev stated the goal is to create a new form of digital fan engagement.
Rain Trade launches a user-created prediction market platform during the 2026 FIFA World Cup with Mike Tyson as a campaign lead — Rain Trade, built on Rain Protocol, launched its marketplace allowing users to create prediction markets on any topic in any language, rather than selecting from pre-built markets. The platform supports AI-powered resolution and manual resolution by market creators, gas-sponsored trading via account abstraction, and cross-chain functionality. The launch is timed to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with former boxer Mike Tyson leading the campaign to attract fans to create and trade markets on matches, players, and tournament moments.
Jump Trading doubles its team to capitalize on the record prediction market boom — Jump Trading is expanding its prediction market operations by doubling headcount, betting on sustained growth in the sector as Q2 volume hit a record $113.8 billion. The firm is positioning to capture opportunities across platform liquidity provision, arbitrage, and market making as the asset class expands beyond political events into sports and other categories.
Pascal raises $9 million in Series A funding led by Union Square Ventures to target institutional traders — The New York-based prediction market startup, founded by former Bridgewater and dYdX quantitative trader Ivo Crnkovic-Rubsamen and high-frequency crypto trader Matthew Downey, raised $9 million in a Series A round led by Union Square Ventures. Pascal builds on a $6 million seed round from Wintermute Ventures and DBA last August. The platform, which launched in private beta in June 2026, uses perpetual futures-style mechanics on event contracts to offer lower fees and better liquidity tools for professional traders and institutions, positioning itself between Kalshi and Polymarket in a market where the two incumbents have a combined valuation over $37 billion. Kalshi carries a valuation of roughly $22 billion and is reportedly in talks to raise new funding that could roughly double that number, while Polymarket is valued at $15 billion.
Kalshi refers Gabriel Perez to CFTC as he negotiates settlement over $100,000 in insider bets on Trump speeches — Kalshi refers Gabriel Perez, President Trump's longtime teleprompter operator, to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after its surveillance team flagged trades on mention markets tied to more than a dozen Trump speeches. Perez is in talks to settle allegations that he used nonpublic information to win over $100,000, sometimes exiting positions mid-speech when Trump skipped prepared passages, and the White House places him on unpaid leave with press secretary Karoline Leavitt calling the conduct a disgrace. Kalshi head of enforcement Robert J. Denault says the company promptly flagged, investigated, and referred the activity, and Kalshi continues to offer contracts on Trump remarks even after the incident.
The SEC and CFTC are jointly reviewing whether the SEC should regulate prediction market products — As prediction markets boom, legal experts increasingly expect the SEC to take a role in regulating the asset class alongside the CFTC. The two agencies issued a joint request for public comment on updating definitions related to swaps and novel products, including event contracts. Polymarket confirmed it has engaged with both agencies on definitional frameworks, while Kalshi declined to comment on its interactions.
Kalshi launches 13 biotech prediction markets with partner AppliedXL and a conservative approach to phase 3 trials — Kalshi expands into biotechnology with 13 new event contracts on clinical drug trial outcomes, including whether Gilead and Arcellx's multiple-myeloma therapy anito-cel will be approved and whether AriBio's AR1001 Alzheimer's trial meets its primary endpoint. The platform partners with AppliedXL, a tech company that monitors and predicts clinical trial outcomes, and takes a conservative approach by allowing bets only on phase 3 trials run by established biopharma companies with full approval. Kalshi requires employment verification and prohibits trading by anyone holding material nonpublic information, including pharmaceutical employees, FDA personnel, and investigators, and files contracts through the CFTC exchange-certification process.
A city council approves a prediction market provision in its ethics code — The council's ethics code update includes a provision specifically addressing prediction markets, alongside the appointment of a new CDPH commissioner and policies to streamline affordable housing development using city funds. The exact details of the prediction market provision are not specified in the headline.
A court appoints Wesley Griffith of Almeida Law Group as interim co-lead class counsel in the Polymarket litigation — Wesley Griffith, an attorney at Almeida Law Group, has been appointed interim co-lead class counsel in the class action litigation against Polymarket. The case, which involves allegations of illegal gambling and consumer protection violations, is being coordinated by Almeida Law Group and co-counsel. The appointment formalizes Griffith's role in leading the plaintiffs' legal strategy as the multidistrict litigation proceeds.
Kalshi backs congressional bill requiring facial recognition age checks on prediction markets — Kalshi publicly endorses the Facial Recognition to Protect Children Act, a bipartisan bill introduced by Representative Josh Gottheimer that would mandate facial analysis technology for age verification on prediction markets and online sportsbooks. The legislation explicitly prohibits storing biometric data, and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour calls the protection of children a no-brainer while arguing for an industry-wide standard.
Polymarket partners with UFC and Meta to donate $100,000 to veteran nonprofits during UFC Freedom 250 — Polymarket collaborated with UFC and Meta to distribute $100,000 across four veteran-focused nonprofits during UFC Freedom 250 fight week in mid-June. Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, the National Medal of Honor Museum, Tunnel To Towers Foundation, and Blinded Veterans Association each received $25,000 donations. Dana White led UFC athletes including Alexander Volkanovski, Gilbert Burns, Randy Brown, and Josh Emmett on a June 12 visit to Walter Reed where they met more than 150 veterans and presented 25 service members with UFC Community Heroes Awards, BMF Belts, and event merchandise. Meta provides Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses to the honorees as part of a national campaign with Blinded Veterans Association aiming to reach 130,000 veterans experiencing blindness.
Kalshi faces proposed legislation to ban sports event contracts as congresswoman calls them gambling — Rep. Dina Titus introduces the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to prohibit sports event contracts on prediction market platforms, targeting Kalshi for operating under CFTC oversight while generating over $1 billion in Super Bowl LX volume, a 2,700% increase from the prior year. The Nevada Democrat argues in an op-ed that Kalshi labels sports event contracts as financial derivatives to evade state and tribal sports betting regulation, and has petitioned the CFTC for enforcement against the platform. Regulators in Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio issued cease-and-desist orders against Kalshi in March 2025.
Kalshi pulls plug on flight cancellation contracts after backlash — Kalshi calls off plans for airport cancellation wagers after social media users warn bad actors could make mischief at airports to collect payouts and after FlightAware says Kalshi cannot use its data to resolve the contracts. A Kalshi spokesperson tells Fortune the company has opted not to go forward for now, though the contracts included rules prohibiting insiders from placing wagers.
Indian Gaming Association pushes Senate to add prediction market ban to CLARITY Act — The Indian Gaming Association is lobbying senators to amend the CLARITY Act, a crypto market-structure bill, to explicitly prohibit sports and casino-style prediction market contracts. Tribal leaders are meeting with senators and staff during the IGA's Summer Legislative Summit in Washington, D.C., and are also seeking language that the CLARITY Act would not preempt the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act or other tribal gaming laws. The bill faces an uncertain path to 60 Senate votes before the August recess.
FIRST.bet and ADI Predictstreet partner to scale regulated prediction markets across Latin America — ADI Predictstreet, the official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and FIRST.bet, a Tier-1 B2B sportsbook provider, formed a strategic partnership to expand regulated prediction markets in Latin America. The deal combines ADI Predictstreet's prediction market infrastructure with FIRST.bet's regional operator network and localization expertise. They will launch a dedicated FIFA World Cup 2026 Prediction Hub for Latin American fans, offering markets on matches, teams, players, and defining moments.
Accountability groups urge Congress to ban insider trading on prediction markets — A coalition of accountability organizations is calling on Congress to explicitly prohibit insider trading on prediction market platforms. The groups argue that current regulations are insufficient to prevent traders with non-public information from profiting unfairly on event contracts.
Polymarket study finds traders manipulated $8.2 million from retail users in bitcoin bets — A study from Stanford and Singapore Management University finds that 821 traders manipulated $8.2 million from retail users in Polymarket's five-minute bitcoin contract, up from an earlier estimate of $1.28 million. The research shows that traders exploited a Chainlink oracle by pushing Binance's spot price in the final 10 seconds before settlement, with Binance order flow jumping to about 3.9 times the level recorded during other settlement periods. Polymarket plans to extend settlement timeframes to 15 minutes and use multiple price feeds to reduce manipulation risks as it prepares a token launch later in 2026.
Google tightens prediction markets ad rules with new certification requirements — Google updated its gambling and games ads policy to expand certification requirements to all gambling and games categories, including prediction markets. The enhanced policy, rolling out on September 14, requires all accounts to demonstrate good policy health and threatens manager accounts with repeated violations with certificate revocation. This follows Google's July 13 ban on prediction markets product ads in Michigan and New York.
The CFTC proposes a rule that redefines event contracts to legalize sports gambling via prediction markets — The CFTC, under chair Mike Selig, released a 66-page notice of proposed rulemaking that reinterprets federal commodities law to preempt state gambling laws and give the agency exclusive authority over event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The proposal employs what critics call legal gymnastics to distinguish sports-based contracts from gambling, setting up a likely Supreme Court showdown over whether states can ban these products. The American Prospect argues the rule stands in clear opposition to congressional statute and the CFTC's own prior rulemaking.
One-man CFTC speeds up rulemaking on prediction markets and crypto — With a single commissioner now leading the CFTC, the agency is accelerating rulemaking on prediction markets and cryptocurrency regulation. The streamlined decision-making process allows faster issuance of proposed rules and guidance, potentially reshaping the regulatory landscape for event contracts and digital assets.
CFTC orders Kalshi to keep offering sports events contracts in Michigan — The CFTC on July 14 issues an emergency order preventing Kalshi from complying with a Michigan state court's June 29 temporary restraining order that demanded the platform cancel trades made by Michigan residents. The derivatives regulator claims Kalshi was bullied into leaving the Great Lake State, while a Kalshi lawyer insists the platform has been put in an impossible position. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig warns that unwinding executed trades is an unprecedented step that risks a cascading effect across the marketplace, as the agency has now sued nine states including Arizona, New York, and Illinois over attempts to restrict event contracts as gambling.
Polymarket faces congressional probe over influencer deals with election deniers — Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) sends a letter to Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on July 14, 2026, demanding details of the platform's paid partnerships with influencers who reportedly promoted election denial claims while advertising election betting markets. The letter asks whether Polymarket knew about influencers' election denialism before entering or renewing arrangements, and requests documents from January 20 2025 to the present covering vetting and enforcement of policies on election-related promotions. Krishnamoorthi gives Polymarket until July 28 to respond.
Nevada Gaming Control Board warns prediction markets could lead to nationwide online casinos — The Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) issued a warning that prediction markets could cause the proliferation of nationwide online casinos. The NGCB's statement suggests that event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket may effectively function as unlicensed gambling, potentially bypassing state-level gaming regulations and tribal compacts. The board's concern centers on the rapid growth of these markets and their ability to operate outside established gaming laws.
TxFlow L1 launches Probly, a prediction market application built on its blockchain — TxFlow L1, a Layer 1 blockchain, announced Probly as its second application, a prediction market built on the TxFlow Improvement Protocol 3 (TIP3). At launch, Probly offers 172 live markets covering over 7,000 events, including continuously rolling markets with durations as short as five minutes, with fully onchain settlement. The platform uses DAG-based parallel execution and a multi-threaded processing pipeline, settling directly on TxFlow L1 rather than a shared general-purpose network or centralized offchain ledger.
Five Civilized Tribes call on Congress and regulators to ensure prediction markets comply with tribal gaming laws — The Inter-Tribal Council of the Five Civilized Tribes (Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Muscogee Creek, and Seminole Nations) adopted a resolution calling for oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Choctaw Chief Gary Batton said these markets undermine tribal sovereignty and long-standing tribal gaming compacts, exploiting regulatory gaps. The ITC urged Congress and federal regulators to close legal loopholes and ensure tribes have a seat at the table as prediction market regulations are debated.
Outcome.xyz pushes for permissionless prediction markets on Hyperliquid — Outcome.xyz, the primary frontend developer for Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets, is pushing to allow anyone to deploy prediction markets on Hyperliquid without validator approval. Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 binary contracts on mainnet on May 2, with shared order books, margining, and data feeds, and early trading volumes hit several million dollars in notional value on the first days. However, every market still requires validator gating for creation and settlement, and as of mid-July, permissionless deployment has not gone live, with community feedback on July 14 calling for it 'asap.' Outcome.xyz has both technical proximity and incentive to remove the gates, while Hyperliquid competes with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Augur proposes a decentralized oracle and resolution layer called Lituus to address prediction market dispute resolution — The Augur Lituus whitepaper outlines a proposed Ethereum-native decentralized oracle and resolution layer for prediction markets, DeFi protocols, and governance systems. It arrives as Augur's original dispute and fork mechanism is being tested under real economic conditions, and as analysts project political and public policy prediction markets could grow into a hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars category over the coming decade. The paper includes a comparative analysis of oracle security and aims to strengthen trust and dispute resolution as the industry scales, with the core question being how outcomes are settled when billions of dollars depend on the answer.
Kalshi launches GPU forward curves as CME and ICE race to release competing compute futures — Kalshi launches compute forward curves for Nvidia B200, H200 and A100 chips, building the first market-implied forward curve for compute. The product was unveiled in a Bloomberg exclusive by new Chief Risk Officer Uday Shah, a 16-year CME veteran who defected from the exchange currently suing the CFTC to block Kalshi's perpetual futures. Both CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange have announced their own compute futures products, positioning Kalshi in a brewing fight with the biggest names in derivatives. The forward curves are derived directly from trading activity on Kalshi's event contracts, allowing traders and businesses to see implied future prices for renting Nvidia GPU capacity up to a year ahead, with CME having announced its own compute futures plans on May 12 in partnership with Silicon Data.
Evercore Holdings acquires prediction market platform TraXion in an all-stock transaction — Evercore Holdings, a publicly traded holding company, acquires TraXion, an under-development prediction market platform, through its wholly owned subsidiary Core Predictions LLC. The all-stock deal positions Evercore to capture growth in a sector that industry analysts project will reach $240 billion in trading volume in 2026, up 370% year-over-year. TraXion plans to launch its flagship online application next quarter, followed by iOS and Android mobile apps featuring real-time event contracts, advanced analytics, and blockchain and AI integration.
Czech Republic bans Polymarket and orders ISPs to block the site within 15 days — The Czech Ministry of Finance adds Polymarket to its blacklist of illegal gambling domains, ordering internet service providers to block access within 15 days. Officials cite data showing the platform is projected to process approximately $220 billion in volume during 2025, with monthly turnover between $10 billion and $11 billion. The Institute for Gambling Regulation warns of outcome manipulation risks and potential misuse of non-public information, with director Jan Řehola arguing that a product functioning as wagering warrants regulation as such.
Blockchain.com taps Polymarket to embed prediction markets for 43 million users — Blockchain.com partners with Polymarket to bring prediction market trading directly into its brokerage app for its 43 million verified users, starting July 14, 2026, the same day as the World Cup semifinal between France and Spain. The integration arrives as prediction-market exchanges handle a record close to $50 billion in total notional trading volume over the past month, with Polymarket accounting for roughly $15 billion. Blockchain.com also files confidentially for an initial public offering, as the company expands into the fastest-growing sector of crypto at a peak moment of global interest.
CFTC orders Kalshi to honor trades as Michigan court tells it to cancel — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission orders KalshiEX to fulfill trades that a Michigan state court directed the prediction-market operator to cancel, escalating a fight over state versus federal authority. The CFTC stays an emergency rule change Kalshi proposed in response to the court order and invokes emergency authority to require normal settlement, with Chairman Michael S. Selig calling the state attempt to void executed derivatives trades unprecedented and warning it risks a cascading effect on the marketplace. The agency has also filed lawsuits against nine other states to protect federal derivatives oversight.
Polymarket faces a defense push to fight an insider trading case — Legal counsel for the defendant in the Polymarket insider trading case is preparing a vigorous defense, according to Law360. The case, brought by federal prosecutors, alleges that a former employee traded on non-public information about upcoming market resolutions. The defense is expected to challenge the application of traditional insider trading laws to decentralized prediction markets, arguing that the platform's structure does not fit existing legal frameworks.
Gondor launches cross-margin borrowing for Polymarket portfolios — Gondor introduced V1, a margin account that lets users borrow against their entire Polymarket portfolio and use the credit to purchase additional positions. The product follows a seven-month beta with 1,000 of Polymarket's most active traders, selected from over 150,000 waitlist applicants. Gondor replaced its initial isolated lending model with a cross-margin system to address gap risk, where binary positions can quickly fall to near zero before lenders can liquidate them, which had forced higher interest rates and restricted borrowing to liquid markets.
Polymarket and Kalshi surpass $50 billion in combined World Cup trading volume with $4.25 billion on winner alone — Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi surpass $50 billion in combined trading volume during the 2026 World Cup, with over $4.25 billion traded on the World Cup winner alone. Polymarket posts record trading volume of $10.7 billion in June, attracting over 174,600 new users and reaching open interest above $423 million. Kalshi alone exceeds $31 billion in June, a 70% increase from May, with sports contracts accounting for 85% of turnover, while the joint Robinhood-Susquehanna project Rothera processes $2 billion.
Kalshi hires Dillon Borgida as head of private client sales and services — Kalshi appoints Dillon Borgida, formerly of Underdog, DraftKings, William Hill, and FanDuel, to lead a white-glove support program for advanced traders. The hire signals Kalshi's push to attract and retain high-volume retail and institutional clients.
XOVR ETF invests $30 million in Kalshi as Kalshi accounts for 1.42 percent of portfolio — ERShares' XOVR ETF has invested $30 million in Kalshi, making the prediction market operator one of the fund's largest private-company holdings and accounting for 1.42 percent of XOVR's portfolio. The investment makes XOVR the second ETF to disclose a stake in Kalshi after the Tema Durable Quality ETF, which added the company through a special purpose vehicle. Kalshi reports institutional trading increased 800 percent in the six months through May, while annualized trading volume more than tripled from $52 billion to $178 billion over the same period.
Kalshi launches a Pro trading terminal as the first US platform for trading perpetuals — Kalshi Pro, now live as of July 13, targets active and institutional traders with advanced charting, live trade feeds, enhanced order book visibility, and multi-leg position capability. The terminal is the first US platform for trading perpetual futures, which Kalshi launched on May 29 under CFTC regulation. Trading volume for the perpetuals blew past $1 billion in the first week and climbed to $5.5 billion. Kalshi has not yet decided whether to monetize the product.
Kalshi shows World Cup odds in ChatGPT with France at 60 percent in one snapshot — OpenAI has integrated Kalshi's FIFA World Cup prediction market odds into ChatGPT search results, with ChatGPT displaying France at a 60 percent chance of beating Spain and England at 55 percent against Argentina, according to a New York Times report. Kalshi's own market prices France's chance of advancing at 59 percent and Spain's at 41 percent, a different snapshot than the ChatGPT figures, and the integration coincides with Kalshi's July 13, 2026 preview of the France-Spain semifinal. OpenAI tags each result as informational only and users cannot place bets through ChatGPT, marking OpenAI's first known partnership with a prediction market platform as Kalshi's monthly notional volume exceeds $33 billion.
Polymarket blocks access in several Canadian provinces — Polymarket has restricted access for users in several Canadian provinces, according to the company. The move follows increasing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets in Canada, though specific provinces or reasons for the block were not disclosed.
Gibraltar prediction market rules allow stablecoin use and set European standard — Gibraltar's new Prediction Market Regulations 2026, effective July 13, create the world's first dedicated regulatory regime for the sector and include an allowance for stablecoins to fund accounts. The rules treat prediction markets as a distinct category, neither gambling nor financial services, supervised by the Gambling Division. Minister Nigel Feetham says the framework supports innovation while providing robust oversight, and Gibraltar hopes the rules set a European standard. ADI PredictStreet earned the first license in April and later became the official prediction market of the FIFA World Cup, while US-based WagerWire became the second company to earn a license in principle.
ProphetX asks the CFTC to clarify registration rules for fintech firms offering sports prediction contracts — ProphetX, a sports-native prediction market, submitted a comment letter to the CFTC urging the agency to use its Section 4(c) authority to create a broader framework for eligible sports event contracts and qualifying technology service providers. The company argues that firms providing passive front-end software for accessing CFTC-regulated contracts face uncertainty over whether they must register as introducing brokers, and that the current case-by-case no-action relief approach is unsustainable as the market grows. ProphetX says clearer rules would also reinforce federal preemption of state gaming laws.
Kalshi claims significant flaws in Roosevelt Institute study invalidate findings — Kalshi released a rebuttal on July 10 claiming the Roosevelt Institute study contains significant flaws that invalidate its findings, including a hilariously wrong methodology error. The prediction market operator also accused the think tank of painting a concerning picture about the creep of the casino lobby's influence on policy. The Roosevelt Institute had alleged that ordinary users lost more than half a billion dollars from Kalshi's launch in July 2021 to May 2026.
Texas questions whether Kalshi's event contracts violate state sports betting laws — The Fort Worth Star-Telegram examines the legal status of prediction markets in Texas, where sports betting is illegal. Kalshi's event contracts on sports outcomes may face scrutiny under state gambling prohibitions, raising questions about how regulators will classify these markets.
Polymarket adds TWAP to fix manipulation in 5-minute Bitcoin contracts after study finds $1.28 million shifted from retail traders — Polymarket adds Time-Weighted Average Price resolution to its short-duration crypto up/down contracts, starting with 5-minute Bitcoin markets and planning to extend to 15-minute contracts. A new Stanford University and Singapore Management University study analyzing nearly 16,000 Bitcoin contracts over two months finds 821 suspected manipulators earned around $8.2 million by exploiting the single-price snapshot settlement mechanism, with about $1.28 million shifted from general traders to manipulation participants. The study notes Binance trading volume jumps to nearly 3.9 times its normal level during settlement windows, though researchers call the evidence circumstantial as they cannot prove the Binance traders and Polymarket wallets belong to the same people. Polymarket says it does not believe any manipulation happened but confirms plans to add average-price settlement for some markets over the next year.
Kalshi quietly pulls Jackie Robinson segregation market ad after backlash — Kalshi removes its 1946 and 1947 Jackie Robinson segregation betting market pages from its America's 250th birthday campaign without announcement or explanation, following a blistering column by prominent Black journalist Hazel Trice Edney. The pages have been replaced with a question about breaking the sound barrier, and the deletion comes after the company faced criticism for monetizing Black suffering.
Predict.fun lowers taker fees below Polymarket's rates — Predict.fun now charges taker fees that are comprehensively lower than Polymarket's in both cryptocurrency and sports sectors. For prices below 50 cents, predict.fun's fee rate of 2% compares favorably to Polymarket's range of 2.5% to 6.3%, depending on the price tier.
Polymarket faces Lazio sponsorship collapse and Serie A deal risk after Italy ban — Polymarket's €22 million shirt sponsorship with Serie A club Lazio is in jeopardy after Italian authorities re-block the prediction market platform as illegal gambling. The ban also threatens Polymarket's multi-year agreement with Lega Serie A for the US market, which uses official Serie A logos and trademarks on its American platform. Lazio secured the two-season deal in April with an option for 2028-29, but the Customs and Monopolies Agency has now blocked Polymarket again after a legal dispute where the company argued it was not a traditional betting site.
North Carolina governor signs bill making prediction markets legal with 6 percent tax, revenue to fund college athletics — North Carolina Governor Josh Stein has signed a budget law that includes a measure formally recognizing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's exclusive federal authority over prediction markets, making platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket legal in the state. The law imposes a 6 percent tax on operators' net trading fee revenue from North Carolina residents, with the revenue directed toward college athletics across the state including UNCW, and also increases the sports betting tax from 18 percent to 23 percent. Per Bloomberg Tax, the new prediction market tax is estimated to generate $1 million in revenue.
Kalshi sees $77 million in Love Island trading as female trader share doubles — Kalshi's Love Island USA prediction markets became the platform's largest TV market to date with over $77 million in trading, according to a Los Angeles Times report. The success of the culture markets has helped double the overall percentage of female traders on the prediction market platform in the last year.
Polymarket files for US margin trading license while under active CFTC investigation — Polymarket filed an application for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association through its affiliate Coming Home GBA on July 3, aiming to offer margin trading to US users and attract more institutional investors. The platform is currently under an active CFTC investigation into its marketing practices, and a federal judge in Manhattan ruled this week that state gambling laws survive the Commodity Exchange Act's federal preemption claim, potentially blocking Polymarket from offering leveraged contracts in states where most users live. Rival Kalshi already secured NFA approval for margin trading in March and subsequently launched perpetual contracts that generated more than $5.5 billion in trading volume within two weeks.
Kalshi seeks approval to launch gold, forex, and energy perpetual futures as judge denies sports contract injunction — Kalshi is in advanced discussions with U.S. regulators to introduce perpetual futures tied to gold, foreign exchange, and energy markets, extending its strategy from crypto perpetuals into traditional assets. The platform's crypto perpetual products have already generated about $16.1 billion in trading volume, while a single Mexico, England World Cup match generated roughly $460 million in trading volume across platforms, with Kalshi accounting for $401.4 million and Polymarket handling $57.7 million. On July 7, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres denies Kalshi's request for a preliminary injunction blocking New York from enforcing its gambling laws against sports-event contracts, and Kalshi appeals to the Second Circuit. CME continues to challenge the CFTC's decision allowing Kalshi and Coinbase to offer perpetual futures, and Jenner & Block withdraws as CME's counsel due to a conflict of interest, with former CFTC enforcement chief Aitan Goelman taking over.
Brian Quintenz joins the Coalition for Prediction Markets as a senior advisor — Brian Quintenz, a former CFTC commissioner and Kalshi board member, has been named a Senior Advisor to the Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM). The CPM includes Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Coinbase, and Underdog. Quintenz was previously the odds-on favorite to become CFTC Chairman but faced controversy over his ties to Kalshi and alleged interference from the Winklevoss twins.
Arizona secretary of state bans staff from election betting on Kalshi and Polymarket as Maricopa County adopts similar policy — Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes barred employees from using nonpublic information acquired through their jobs to profit from prediction markets or event wagering tied to elections, effective immediately and days before the July 21 primary. The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors unanimously adopted a similar ban for its roughly 13,000 employees the same day, following Governor Katie Hobbs' executive order last week. Attorney General Kris Mayes has already filed criminal charges against Kalshi earlier this year, as election wagering is illegal under Arizona law but platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have grown in popularity.
Kalshi opens weather delay bets on sporting events, testing CFTC limits — Kalshi self-certified its weather delay category with the CFTC in July 2025 but only began offering wagers two months ago. The CFTC has not publicly contested any self-certified sports wager since permitting sports betting 18 months ago, even though the agency's proposed rule for exchange betting on events says contracts settling by judgment calls or officiating rulings are against the public interest. Kalshi argues its weather delay markets do not threaten game integrity, while the CFTC declined to comment.