“prediction markets are great for information but terrible for retail traders”
Skeptical counter to the democratizing-finance framing around prediction markets. Cites Polymarket data showing 70% of 1.7 million addresses lost money and that the top 0.04% captured over 70% of the $3.7B in realized profits, and argues the structure predictably funnels retail into informed counterparties (including platform-operated market-making desks at Kalshi and Crypto.com). Concedes prediction markets are genuinely useful as an information layer while arguing they are a poor retail trading product.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com