“insider trading in prediction markets is a feature or a bug depending on the truth being sought”
Sets out to defend insider trading in prediction markets but arrives at a more conditional position. Introduces a 'discovery vs betrayal' framework: in distributed-truth markets like elections, informed traders sharpen the signal because no one holds the full answer; in concentrated-truth markets like earnings, insiders monetize sealed results rather than synthesize public fragments. Argues the real question is not whether insiders should be allowed but what kind of informational asymmetry a market can absorb without losing the participation and trust that make the signal useful.
No technical background needed