“Kalshi market makers shade lines against retail and get systematically picked apart by sports sharps”
Detailed analysis of how Kalshi market makers (quant firms like SIG) shade lines against expected retail flow during the 2026 World Cup, creating persistent edges for informed sports traders. Covers the France vs Norway case study where public rotation news was ignored by models for three days, the fee structure that prevents clean arbitrage while allowing informed one-sided betting, and structural issues like the lack of taker speedbumps. Notes .7B in World Cup volume with highly skewed profit distribution toward sharp traders.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket, Betfair