“professional algo traders profit from paired trades while 69% of retail traders lose money”
Analyzes Polymarket's short-duration crypto up/down markets, which now account for 16% of monthly volume but generate ~40% of platform fees. Finds professional algo traders (19 addresses) extract consistent profits through paired trading and maker execution while 69% of retail traders lose money. Argues prediction markets are becoming a game of volatility rather than forecasting.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket