“binary prediction markets reward being right, not being precise”
Manifesto arguing binary yes/no prediction markets are incomplete—they flatten nuanced beliefs into coin flips and pay the same whether you were barely right or sharply right. Proposes distribution-native markets that reward precision: pay more for being closer to the actual outcome. Cites 130x volume growth from early 2024 to late 2025 as the category's credibility moment.
Some technical background helpful