“prediction markets get their accuracy from 3% skilled traders while 84% lose money”
Synthesizes four datasets — accuracy metrics, trader PnL, volume concentration, and skill classification — to reveal prediction markets' real structure: a 3% skilled minority drives the accuracy while 84% of traders lose money. A data-rich challenge to the 'wisdom of crowds' narrative.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi