“prediction markets don't reveal truth, they manufacture it”
Draws on Isaiah Berlin's two concepts of liberty to frame two competing visions of markets: the 'market as camera' (Hayek's price discovery aggregating scattered private knowledge) versus the 'market as engine' (actively shaping the outcomes it measures). Uses prediction markets as a live case study, covering their history from 1880s New York curb betting through the Iowa Electronic Markets to Polymarket and Kalshi's $24B monthly volume. Highlights recent research showing prediction market accuracy is driven by fewer than 3% of skilled traders, not wisdom of crowds, and explores the political stakes of which outcomes get priced at all.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Iowa Electronic Markets