“prediction markets show democracy threats drop when elections go smoothly”
Scott Alexander reviews the Metaculus US Democracy Threat Index, a prediction market index tracking expected threats to American democracy through 2027-2028. The index peaked at 47% in late 2025 following election uncertainty before settling to 39% after orderly special elections and failed politicized prosecutions. Discusses conditional prediction markets as a tool to measure how electoral outcomes affect democratic health, and proposes a wishlist including cross-platform duplicates (Polymarket/Kalshi), better question design, and wider forecaster participation.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Metaculus, Polymarket, Kalshi