“69% of polymarket's retail accounts lose; the crowd is down $339m in aggregate”
Drawing on Polymarket's full onchain settlement record, Galaxy tracked 2.9 million human-paced accounts: 69.2% finished below break-even and the population is down $338.9m in aggregate. Losing raises churn — 15.2% of accounts hadn't traded again within 30 days of a loss, against 6.1% after a win. Specialization pays only where traders plausibly have an edge: sports specialists, 47% of the group, are least profitable at 25.1%, while tech and science reach 41.2%.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi