“liquidity begets liquidity, and prediction markets are winner-take-most”
Two prediction market startups — Trepa and Fireplace — shut down within 90 minutes of each other in the sector's best year ever, as Kalshi and Polymarket absorbed 93.3% of volume. The postmortem's core argument: prediction markets behave like exchanges, not products, where liquidity begets liquidity and winner-take-most is the natural shape of the market. A sharp case that the standalone prediction market platform may already be a dead category — with four questions every new builder should ask first.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Trepa, Fireplace, Augur, PredictIt, Intrade, OPINION