Library/The State of Prediction Markets
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The State of Prediction Markets

blocmates·April 1, 2026·Blog
Prediction markets are splitting into three distinct product archetypes, not converging on a winner

Why It's Worth Reading

Maps the prediction market landscape as a stack war between crypto rails (Polymarket), regulated rails (Kalshi), and execution wrappers (Coinbase, Robinhood). Argues the sector is stratifying into product archetypes rather than converging on a winner-takes-all outcome, with TradFi incumbents pushing standardized binaries that fit existing market structure.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, Nasdaq, Cboe

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