“prediction markets show what will happen, but decision markets show what to do about it”
Alex Tabarrok uses Polymarket's Maine Democratic primary market as a worked example of how conditional probability estimates can be reverse-engineered from prediction market price moves, then argues that Robin Hanson's decision markets (conditional contracts with refund provisions) would give cleaner, continuous estimates of exactly the quantities decision-makers need. A short, accessible case for moving beyond raw prediction markets toward decision markets and futarchy.
No technical background needed