“forecasting accuracy is useless without products that fit into real workflows”
Argues forecasting accuracy has outpaced product design: a decade inside the US intelligence community produced zero complaints about forecast quality, yet forecasting firms remain niche while simulation startups Aaru and Simile raised nine-figure rounds. Diagnoses the gap as a failure to embed forecasts into institutional workflows, and recommends forecasting companies hire deployment managers who transform probabilities into artifacts clients can act on.
No technical background needed