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The Shape of Prediction Markets to Come

Will Owens·January 19, 2026·Company Blog
prediction markets are becoming the next derivatives layer for finance

Why It's Worth Reading

Galaxy research report on prediction markets evolving from niche speculation to mainstream financial infrastructure. Covers Polymarket ($9B valuation, 1.6M users) and Kalshi (top finance iOS app), emerging leverage mechanisms (Space, Gondor), AI as interface layer for fragmented venues, and convergence toward derivatives—event contracts as hedges, collateral, and composable financial primitives.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi

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