“the no-trade theorem died the moment sharp money met election chaos”
Traces prediction markets from Renaissance papal betting through the 2024 election boom, and explains why early attempts like Intrade and Augur failed while Kalshi and Polymarket finally broke through. Covers the saver, gambler, and sharp participant problem at the core of prediction market design, and sketches where the industry is headed: bespoke hedging, perpetual and combinatorial markets, and AI agents.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi