“the exchanges retired the word bet; the ledger changed, not the expected value”
On Oct. 26 the NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction market partners, wiring the exchanges into a gambling money chain that already funds nearly every layer of Knicks coverage. Sportsbooks kept 24.2 cents of every New Jersey parlay dollar, and Kalshi's combos cost users roughly $117 million from January to April - about $15 of every $100. Combos now drive two-thirds of Kalshi's notional volume. Retiring the word bet changes the ledger, not the expected value.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket