“it resembles a bet in function and a derivative in form”
A Bocconi law professor reads the transatlantic puzzle at the centre of prediction market regulation: US appeals courts are split on whether event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated wagers, with the Third Circuit accepting CFTC jurisdiction in April and the Ninth Circuit rejecting it on August 28. Annunziata shows that EU law already lands where the Ninth Circuit landed, treating a contract on a discrete fact like who wins a match as a wager rather than a financial instrument, which is why Belgium, France, Italy, Poland and Romania have blocked access to the platforms. The classification question is a choice between protecting retail savers and letting them speculate, and it is now before the Supreme Court and the European Commission.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi