“prediction markets are splitting into two distinct species: one for squares, one for sharps”
Applies the sportsbook industry's square vs. sharp distinction to prediction markets. Argues Kalshi (3.5% take fee) and Polymarket (1.5%+) are building square prediction markets that monetize price-insensitive retail takers, while sharp prediction markets focused on trading efficiency will thrive outside the US. Notes that raising fees from 0.5% to 0.75% on 4casters had no material impact on volume, suggesting sports bettors are less price-sensitive than assumed.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket, NEW: 4casters