“prediction markets crush casual traders harder than sportsbooks do”
Wall Street equity research analysis of anonymized trading data comparing prediction market and sports betting returns. The median prediction market user has an ROI of -8%, worse than sports bettors at -5%, with only traders above $500K in volume achieving positive returns (+2.6%). Finds that prediction markets attract sharper competition than regulated sportsbooks, creating worse outcomes for casual retail participants.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi