Library/The Liquidity Problem in Prediction Markets, Part I: Adverse Selection and Market Making
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The Liquidity Problem in Prediction Markets, Part I: Adverse Selection and Market Making

semaji.eth·September 15, 2025·Twitter
market makers survive by skimming retail flow and dodging informed traders

Why It's Worth Reading

Educational deep-dive on adverse selection and market making fundamentals. Uses the classic Jane Street coffee interview question to illustrate why conditional on someone trading with you, you should be less confident your trade was good. Explains how market makers profit from retail flow while avoiding toxic informed counterparties.

Extensive technical background assumed

Concepts

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