“the winners are not the people who know things, but the people who quote them”
Over 100,000 Polymarket wallets have lost at least $1,000 since 2025; outside a handful of automated winners, participants are down $131 million. Gensyn reads that as structure, not skill: with no hedgers to pay the spread, makers earn a screening rent instead, carrying the mispriced side to settlement. In 24 hours of five-minute bitcoin markets, 91.4% of persistent makers' profit arrived at resolution, and 407 makers gained $45,300 while 12,749 retail accounts lost $66,700.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi