“prediction accuracy matters less than execution quality for profits”
Decomposes 222 million Polymarket trades into directional and execution components and finds that forecasting accuracy does not predict profitability. Traders who pick the right side still lose money because they arrive late and pay unfavorable prices, while automated traders with near-random directional skill profit by paying 2.52 cents less per contract.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket