“an index turns a condition into a time series, not a headline”
Prediction markets price one event at a time; most people want to know whether the Middle East is getting more stable. Alan Wu argues for an index layer - published weights over a basket of contracts - so the reading becomes a persistent, inspectable time series instead of a headline. Adjacent's BLUE and RED indices and Kalshi's American Power Index already disagree on the same markets, transparently. The VIX took eleven years to become tradable; the information value came first.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Adjacent