“0.15 percent of takers beat the market, and the midpoint follows them”
Kalshi's research arm sorts a billion trades from the year to September 2026 and finds price discovery is remarkably concentrated. At a strict false-discovery threshold, only 0.15 percent of takers beat the markets they trade against, skill that persists out of sample and is largely unrelated to profit. After a skilled taker trades, the weighted midpoint moves 1.7 cents their way by the next order and 3.3 cents by close, most of the 3.8-cent gap to the outcome.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi