“whether polymarket prices hold up as probability forecasts, tested through calibration and bias”
Reichenbach and Walther ask when a prediction market price should be trusted as a probability. Working through Polymarket's contract history, they separate price informativeness from calibration and bias, testing whether quoted odds track realized outcomes. The paper treats trust in prices as an empirical property rather than a design assumption — and shows where calibration and systematic bias distort the read.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket