“same five-minute contract, two settlement rules, one natural experiment”
Polymarket's five-minute bitcoin contract settled on a single Chainlink snapshot until 7 August 2026, then on a 30-second and later a 60-second average, a rare chance to test the standard anti-manipulation remedy outside the lab. Wang measures settlement-window trading under each regime to ask whether averaging the settlement price actually removes the incentive to push it. It is the first direct read on the fix Polymarket adopted after settlement manipulation was documented earlier this year.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket