“polymarket and kalshi do not share one settlement clock — labels aren't mechanisms”
Polymarket and Kalshi each resolve through layered states — oracle adjudication, adapter consumption and redemption on one side; venue determination, public finalization and REST settlement on the other — so 'settled' is not a shared timestamp. The author proposes a comparison certificate: a cross-venue duration holds only when payoff semantics, endpoints, calendar support, censoring and observation grades align. Evidence spans 108,638 exact-linked Polymarket conditions and 7,357,576 Kalshi MVE endpoints, yet a matched contrast awaits blind adjudication and a semantic registry.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi