“public evidence can settle a contract before the venue records its determination”
Public evidence can make an outcome knowable before Kalshi records its own determination, and this paper builds a clock for that gap: first decidability, the earliest moment the rules and a source release map to one outcome, and stable decidability, the earliest moment after which that mapping never changes again. The empirical result is an observability finding rather than a claim about markets: across 152,694 historical Kalshi tickers the author recovered current rule text for all 25 pilot identities but no exact or bounded historical rule version and no exact source-release object, leaving zero historically eligible events. A prospective monitoring stack covering three official source programmes across 25 markets is now enrolling.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi