“Disclosure lets big bettors talk their book and cash out at better prices”
An April 2024 Polymarket rule change made each commenter's open position visible beside the comment, and this paper tests what disclosure buys. Comments backed by larger positions draw more replies, and prices move further in their direction - yet positions do not become more predictive of final outcomes, and comment direction does not reliably forecast them either. Larger holders also become likelier to comment, then unwind shortly after posting at better prices: transparency confers influence by talking one's book.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket