“scenario planning imagines futures; crowdsourced forecasting prices them”
RAND and Metaculus just published a joint paper on integrated strategic forecasting (ISF), a five-step method that fuses scenario planning with crowdsourced forecasting. Scenario planning imagines plausible futures but can't say which are likely; crowdsourced forecasting assigns probabilities but only to narrow, operationalized questions. ISF bridges the gap: decompose scenarios into drivers and signals, turn them into Value-of-Information-filtered forecasting questions, then feed the evolving probabilities back into the scenarios. A concrete blueprint for putting probabilistic forecasting to work in government and corporate strategy.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Metaculus