A criterion for prioritizing forecasting questions by how much resolving them would change a decision, favoring drivers that are both important and uncertain.
Cluster: Information Theory
Related Concepts
strategic forecasting — Applying probabilistic forecasting to long-range strategic and policy questions, typically by decomposing scenarios into drivers and signals and tracking them with crowdsourced forecasts.
scenario planning — A strategic foresight method that develops multiple plausible futures to rehearse tradeoffs and prepare for discontinuous change, without assigning probabilities to any one future.
wisdom of crowds — The phenomenon where aggregated group estimates often outperform individual experts in forecasting accuracy.
A criterion for prioritizing forecasting questions by how much resolving them would change a decision, favoring drivers that are both important and uncertain.