strategic forecasting

Applying probabilistic forecasting to long-range strategic and policy questions, typically by decomposing scenarios into drivers and signals and tracking them with crowdsourced forecasts.

Cluster: Information Theory

Related Concepts

• scenario planning — A strategic foresight method that develops multiple plausible futures to rehearse tradeoffs and prepare for discontinuous change, without assigning probabilities to any one future.
• value of information — A criterion for prioritizing forecasting questions by how much resolving them would change a decision, favoring drivers that are both important and uncertain.
• wisdom of crowds — The phenomenon where aggregated group estimates often outperform individual experts in forecasting accuracy.

Articles about strategic forecasting

• Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New RAND x Metaculus Methodology by Molly Hickman