“if the crowd is a few bettors with cash to burn, there is no wisdom”
Kalshi, Polymarket and a trial-forecasting pilot called Endpoint Arena now let the public bet on clinical readouts and FDA approvals. Kalshi's stated case, that markets would close the "two-tier information system" between industry and everyone else, names a real problem. Wershba grants the asymmetry is genuine, then dismantles the fix: platforms can bar insiders but cannot say who actually bets, show volume rather than bettor counts, and would have sponsors and patients reading those prices as evidence.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket