“Prediction markets expose information that stocks keep hidden behind ambiguous price signals”
Prediction markets make information legible in a way stocks and options do not. When someone bets big on an attack on Maduro, everyone immediately knows what the bet is about, unlike a stock price spike that could mean anything. Andrew Courtney argues this legibility is a feature even when it surfaces uncomfortable national security implications.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi