Library/Information Contagion
MicrostructureAnalysis

Information Contagion

Rajiv Sethi·March 31, 2026·Substack
insider trades on polymarket leaked into regulated futures markets without breaking any laws

Why It's Worth Reading

Traces how insider trades on Polymarket before Trump's March 2026 Iran announcement may have leaked into regulated oil and stock futures markets. Proposes that quant funds extracted the informational signal from pseudonymous crypto trades and acted on it in KYC-regulated venues, all without breaking existing laws. Highlights a structural gap where information flows freely across platforms even when regulatory frameworks differ.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket

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