“the information that would correct the crowd lies with the person”
Across 6,150 Manifold markets where 1,660 people asked about their own futures, prices overstated outcomes by 4.4 points, while external markets were nearly calibrated at 0.9. The bias was absent at open: observers' trading created it within a day, and it peaked in the week before close. Only the person supplied the correction, their orders driving 38% of the late move toward the outcome against 9% in external markets.
Extensive technical background assumed
Platforms mentioned: Manifold