“decision markets can separate a candidate’s causal impact from correlated background noise”
Scott Alexander proposes a novel secondary-market mechanism to solve the confounding problem in conditional decision markets, where standard predictions conflate a candidate's causal impact with correlated background conditions. Also surveys the state of prediction markets at billions in monthly volume, covering resolution criteria disputes ("rulescucks"), insider trading controversies, and the UMA oracle design behind Polymarket's resolution system.
No technical background needed
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold