Library/Log-Time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities
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Log-Time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities

Miroslav Dudík, Xintong Wang, David M. Pennock, David M. Rothschild·February 15, 2021·Academic Paper
Efficient prediction markets for continuous variables are possible using interval securities and a binary tree decomposition of the LMSR

Why It's Worth Reading

Designs the first computationally efficient prediction market for continuous outcome distributions using interval securities. Achieves logarithmic-time operations by decomposing the LMSR into a balanced binary tree, and extends to parallel submarkets at multiple resolutions with constant bounded loss.

Extensive technical background assumed

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