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Why AMMs Failed Prediction Markets

Melee·April 13, 2026·Twitter
impermanent loss is permanent when a prediction market resolves to zero

Why It's Worth Reading

Historical walkthrough of why LMSR-based automated market makers structurally failed for prediction markets. In a binary market that resolves to 0 or 1, impermanent loss becomes permanent: the pool inevitably holds worthless shares on the losing side, and trading fees cannot offset a guaranteed structural loss. The piece traces Polymarket's late-2022 migration from an LMSR AMM to a central limit order book as the moment the industry recognized that prediction market liquidity needs a different mechanism than token swaps.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Augur

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