“kalshi beats polymarket to new prices by seven seconds, but polymarket's liquidity is four times deeper”
Compares Kalshi and Polymarket's NFL game markets during the 2025 season. Finds Kalshi reprices faster (median 7-second lead) while Polymarket has deeper liquidity requiring 3-4x more volume to move prices comparably. Uses Kyle-style market impact analysis to quantify the price discovery vs. liquidity depth tradeoff between centralized and on-chain order book architectures.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket