Library/The Super Bowl of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket's Battle for Price vs Liquidity
MicrostructureResearch Paper

The Super Bowl of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket's Battle for Price vs Liquidity

Ally Zach, Danning Sui·February 5, 2026·Company Blog
kalshi beats polymarket to new prices by seven seconds, but polymarket's liquidity is four times deeper

Why It's Worth Reading

Compares Kalshi and Polymarket's NFL game markets during the 2025 season. Finds Kalshi reprices faster (median 7-second lead) while Polymarket has deeper liquidity requiring 3-4x more volume to move prices comparably. Uses Kyle-style market impact analysis to quantify the price discovery vs. liquidity depth tradeoff between centralized and on-chain order book architectures.

Some technical background helpful

Concepts

Platforms mentioned: Kalshi, Polymarket

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