“polymarket's 5-minute markets are 86% bots, and binance volume spikes 12x in the final seconds”
Pantera Research Lab's empirical study of the $7.8B short-term crypto prediction market on Polymarket and Kalshi, analyzing fee economics, maker rebate structures, and settlement-driven trading patterns. Finds Polymarket's 5-minute market is 86% bot-driven by wallet count, with Binance spot volume spiking 12-17x in the final seconds of still-even cycles, consistent with settlement-driven strategies.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Polymarket, Kalshi