“event contracts will reach institutions through structured notes, not naked binaries”
Argues that institutional adoption of prediction market event contracts will follow the same path as synthetic risk transfer in credit markets — not through convincing risk managers to hold naked binaries, but through structured product wrappers that plug into existing credit/yield mandates. Traces the €800bn SRT/CLN market as precedent, then presents Marex's April 2026 note tied to Kalshi event contracts (up to $10M, 7% coupon if Nvidia remains largest company) as the first clear signal of this trend.
Some technical background helpful
Platforms mentioned: Kalshi