“settlement manipulation can be more profitable than trading on inside information”
An academic paper from Stanford and Singapore Management University studying how prediction market participants can manipulate the settlement process itself — the mechanism by which outcome data feeds into market resolution. Extends the manipulation literature beyond the trading phase to examine oracle-level attacks, where traders profit by influencing or anticipating biased settlement rather than by trading on superior information. Formalizes the conditions under which settlement manipulation is profitable and discusses implications for oracle design, dispute resolution frameworks, and market integrity.
Extensive technical background assumed